Risk Managers – Are you away from your desk enough?

This is the longer version of an article I had published by Strategic Risk Magazine recently which can be found here: Strategic risk article

A few years ago I was asked by Strategic Risk Magazine to record a short video on what I would like to see change and improve in the Risk Management Profession. Having reviewed the video in the last few days I wanted to see if it was still relevant (Hint: yes it is! now more than ever!) Since I recorded the video, we have all gone through a Pandemic that has lasted 2 years and had a major impact on businesses, countries and societies globally. The video can be watched here:

During these last couple of years, aside from the crisis meetings focused on survival, we have seen organisations focus on restructures, new strategies and business models changing. Amongst other things, digital technology adoption and transformation initiatives have been accelerated. These are all areas where risk managers and risk departments should thrive, providing added value support for decision-making.

Unfortunately, this has not always been the case. Whilst I have seen Risk Mangers being brought to the top table for their insights and support during the pandemic I have also (and far too often) seen Risk Management (and therefore the risk managers) being cast aside or forgotten about for these important decision making meetings and initiatives. I therefore believe, now more than ever, that the suggestions in my video are even more relevant than before. So what are the key suggestions? Of course this is not an exhaustive list, however here are the three areas I discuss, all of which requires the risk manager to wander away from the comforts of their office desk.

Getting a seat at the top table

Risk Management / the Risk Manager needs a seat at the top table. If Risk Management isn’t featuring in decision making at the top levels, then what is the worth of having a risk management program? The Question is how do risk managers get invited?

As a first step, risk managers should be knocking on the door and asking for an invite. It is surprising how often this works. Assuming this doesn’t work then its important to catch their attention by demonstrating value. 

During filming of “Risk Managers Getting Coffee” a question I often asked the guests was “What makes a great risk manager… what do you look for when recruiting for such a role?” The overwhelming answer was always around the soft skills. Communication, relationship building, adaptability, strategic mindset and a salesman-like ability to sell risk management. Whilst quantitative analysis skills, industry knowledge and company knowledge featured in the answers, they were always second to the important soft skills. These skills play a key role in being able to demonstrate the value of risk.

The risk manager needs to Identify influencers and allies who they may be able to approach to get an invitation in the first place. Failing an invitation, at the very least, it may give them a heads up as to when those important meetings are happening (This doesn’t need to be senior leadership meetings but it could be important innovation meetings, digital transformation meetings, project meetings etc). It also gives risk managers a starting point for relationship building in order to develop trust and an understanding of the value that risk management can bring them.

In order to demonstrate true value, the risk manager first needs to understand what is important to their senior executives and learn to speak their language. If the risk manager can understand what is close to their heart, such as a pet project or initiative, it’s a great starting point to offer help or support. And what does support look like?

There are numerous ways a risk manager can add value to senior executives. One way is simply meeting their team and discussing risks to the initiative/decision/project with the team and reporting this back to support decision making. Other approaches include optimising insurance programs, offering solutions to risks or running quantitative risk analysis. Quantitative risk analysis (QRA) can be tricky as it would require information and more time with their teams which may not be an option, however, where possible, then providing QRA data (in a digestible and visual format) will be something that decision makers will not be used to seeing and will usually leave a lasting impression, and with it, an invitation to the top table thereafter.

Its important to point out at this time that a senior exec is unlikely to be impressed if the risk manager only comes to them with roadblocks, negative risks or doom and gloom. Therefore it would be wise to consider opportunities and solutions to the risks or indeed what the deviations (both positive and negative) to the objectives may be when reporting back.

Gain Staff buy-in

Whilst proving value to top management and gaining their support is vital, equally as important is ensuring that the wider staff are on board. They are being asked to identify risk. They are asking to take time out of their jobs to support a risk management program that they often don’t understand, don’t see the value of, or don’t receive feedback from. It is therefore important to focus on communication. If people take their time to identify risk in their departments then the risk manager better make sure that they receive a proper thanks along with feedback on how their risks are supporting decision making or being escalated and used at the highest levels. This can be achieved by producing newsletters, creating (interesting and visual) annual risk reports, undertaking roadshows, creating videos, or getting away from the desk and meeting people on an individual basis daily.

Whether it be department managers or individual staff members, its important for the risk manager to understand what motivates them and again requires the risk manager to get out into the business and talk to people to understand their concerns about the risk management process as well as getting to know how busy they are (and at what times of the year they are most busy), the challenges in their job role, the challenges to their objectives, what motivates them (money, exposure to senior management, recognition etc). . This one-on-one time can be used sell risk management but also use another important risk manager skill, listening. These discussions alone already set the risk manager up with:

  • identified risks (without the need for the staff members to go through a boring form or formal process and offering a great starting point for them)
  • an understanding of the time-consuming or frustrating aspects of the ERM program that could be improved as well as how they like to receive information (detail vs visual for example)
  • a good idea of how staff can be supported better to either avoid busy periods or receive additional support
  • the opportunity to explain why risk management is important and how it might help them and their departments.
  • a starting point for developing incentives and motivations for identifying risk and developing a positive risk culture

Risk Culture

Without the right risk culture in an organisation there is a good chance that even the best designed risk management program will fail. Risk Culture is the combination of values, attitudes and behaviours within an organisation in relation to risk management. This creates the foundations of an organisations approach to risk as it affects all risk decisions and ultimately the delivery of business objectives.

Building a positive risk culture takes time and effort. There is a large amount of work that needs to go into developing a positive risk culture which can take up several articles in itself however we will highlight a few of the key areas. We already discussed the importance of obtaining buy-in from the top as well as from all other staff in the organisation. In addition to this, developing a positive risk culture requires extensive training and hearts and minds sessions as well as constant communication to ensure an organisation-wide understanding of risk management and its benefits.

This requires the risk manager to be visible, approachable and an ally to the business. The following is a list of areas where the risk manager should be actively involved and will be the subject of a separate article that will go into further details.

Training

Risk Management Training forms a fundamental part of developing a positive risk culture. It is not only the technical aspects of the training but the hearts and minds.

Risk Workshops

The Risk Manager needs to act as a support to the organisation when it comes to identifying risks. Identifying risks consistently doesn’t happen overnight Facilitating risk workshops on behalf of departments can help them ease into the process.

Risk Champions

Risk champions can be a powerful tool in an organisation with few staff in a risk department. The risk champions, with the right training and understanding of the framework, along with the right personality and engagement, can act as culture builders in their own departments or functions.

This brings me back to the fact that the risk manager needs to be away from their desk more often than not and ask the right questions. They need to be seeing their risk champions, understanding what will motivate them.

Read more information about educating risk champions and building a successful champions network)

VIDEO CONTENT – Read about the Risk Culture Conversations and WATCH the videos here

Soft Skills of a Risk Manager and the Covid challenge

Essentially, what Risk Managers need to focus on, in order to take the risk profession forward, is their soft skills such as presentations skills, listening, speaking the language of staff, diplomacy and collaboration to name a few. Communication is ultimately key. Getting away from the desk and out into the business and communicating their aspirations and asking the right questions of staff to better develop a risk framework that fits in with their schedules and type of work and actually starts to add value to them. 

But, this is not as easy when the organisation and its staff are dispersed. As we have seen this past couple of years, COVID has altered the way we work. Overcoming this obstacle is where another key skill comes into play: creativity.

If there are concerns about social distancing and not being able to meet one-to-one, or in groups in the office, then think differently. There are a number of alternatives that might work, such as holding outdoor meetings, investigating and using new technologies, hosting highly interactive and visual virtual meetings and workshops and/or adding risk as a regular agenda item in weekly team meetings and ensure that you attend as many as you can.

As we continue to navigate through the crisis, let us lean on our soft skills to better leverage the technical skills we, or other team members may have, to improve risk management now and into the future.

Pandemic/Covid-19 – Scenarios, Black Swans, and Crisis Communication

By Peter Cockcroft- International Dealmaking Expert

During 2004 and 2005, I was invited to undertake a world tour talking about Risk and Uncertainty (as a Distinguished Lecturer for the Society of Petroleum Engineers). 

Part of my presentation was the utilization of scenarios, made famous by Shell in the 1970s – in order to be prepared for the “high impact/low likelihood” events such as pandemics, terrorist attacks or oil price fluctuations (one of my questions to the audience – “if the oil price drops by 50%, are you are a buyer or a seller?” 

During this tour, I was introduced (in 2005) to the fine work using scenarios (does the pandemic occur tonight, next week, or in ten years?) undertaken by Professor Michael Osterholm (University of Minnesota), which were published in his paper, “Preparing for the next pandemic” (Foreign Affairs, July 2005). He also wrote the 2017 book, Deadliest Enemy: Our War Against Killer Germs

He made two, currently pertinent, observations:

A pandemic is coming. It could be caused by H5N1 or by another novel strain. It could happen tonight, next year, or even ten years from now

Can disaster be avoided? The answer is a qualified yes. Although a coming pandemic cannot be avoided, it’s impact can be considerably lessened. It depends on how the leaders of the world – from the heads of the G8 to local officials – decide to respond. They must recognize the economic, security and health threat that the next influenza pandemic poses and act accordingly.

In 2006, the World Economic Forum’s Global Risk Network developed a scenario in 2006 at New York, which illustrated the possible impacts on business, the financial system, and political and economic conditions that could follow from the emergence of a pandemic and explores the role of media “infodemics” in rapidly spreading inaccurate or incomplete information to amplify or downplay the effects of the risk event (often due to political agendas). These so-called “infodemics” are dominating the messaging in today’s world, especially in media talk shows and social media outlets.

Recently (in 2016), Professor Yaneer Bar-Yam continued this dialog on global epidemics in his paper, “Transition to Extinction: Pandemics in a connected world”, followed up by a subsequent presentation specific to Coronavirus (by Joseph Norman, Yaneer Bar-Yam and Nassim Nicholas Taleb), in January, 2020. There is a more recent YouTube interview with Taleb (www.youtube.com/watch?v=e2Kga5HeAqk), which should be required watching for all the risk aficionados.

Taleb, in his book “The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable” In 2007 said:

As we travel more on this planet, epidemics will be more acute – we will have a germ population dominated by a few numbers, and the successful killer will spread more effectively.

and,

Once again, I am not saying that we need to stop globalization and prevent travel. We just need to be aware of the side effects, the trade-offs – and few people are. I see the risk of a very strange acute virus spreading throughout the planet.

A Black Swan is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The term is based on an ancient saying that presumed black swans did not exist – a saying that became reinterpreted to teach a different lesson after black swans were discovered in Australia.

The current Covid-19 pandemic is a black swan (high impact/low probability) event, even if we have been periodically hit by unexpected diseases for our whole history. But it has not “blindsided the world” as described by President Trump (9 March, 2020), as this risk has been identified by so many beforehand. 

As we no longer believe that these “black swans” are here as God’s punishment for our sins, the other alternative is that they must have been caused by biological infection – or in some people’s eyes – have spread because of the incompetence of scientists and politicians. 

Now we usually hold the leader responsible not for causing the virus, but for not acting quickly enough to protect us.

 This has led to unpreparedness by most of our leading politicians and world corporate leaders (with potentially deadly ramifications) to properly communicate these risks. 

There have been some outstanding examples of positive messages from some leaders – the New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Adern after the Christchurch mosque shooting in May 2019, and Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong’s address about the current Covid-19 crisis last month.

Thus the effects of the Covid-19 outbreak it is certainly a candidate for scenario planning, if not conventional quantitative risk analysis. Yesterday (10 March, 2020), we developed scenarios for a large Asian shipping group, using a 2 x 2 matrix, with one axis denoting the spread and effects of Covid-19 – and supply chain disruption on the other axis.

The use of scenarios and proper risk communication to stakeholders are critical to avoiding loss, whether in human lives or in value to corporations and individuals in these difficult to predict events – remember this will not be the last epidemic, nor the last oil price crash. 

Covid-19 Risk Communication

By Peter Cockcroft- International Dealmaking Expert

A dialogue on risk communication with Grant Griffiths, who is a risk expert, based in Turkey.

We will get through this together….

My good friend Grant Griffiths, who is a risk management expert based in Turkey, asked me what risk communication message (and methodology) he could pass on to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan about the potential effects of the Covid-19 pandemic.

So far Turkey has no Covid-19 patients – which is an advantage for the President to win “hearts and minds”, especially amongst the middle-class citizens, by addressing the potential issues and actions needed. 

This is a way to build trust and credibility with the stakeholders.

When an audience has limited or no personal control over the specific risk, trust in an institution or government is a major factor in the audience’s acceptance of the risk communication message – especially when the following factors are incorporated:

  1. Perception of knowledge and expertise
  2. Perceptions of openness and honesty
  3. Perceptions of concern and care (“empathy”)

 As most politicians are looked at with skepticism – and I am sure that Turkey is no different – this is an opportunity for Erdoğan and his government to add to their credibility, rather than have a knee-jerk reaction if and when the Corona virus is discovered in Turkey. 

Review the Singapore risk communication example

I would recommend them to utilize the Singapore model, rather than that of the White House. These YouTube excerpts from the Singaporean Prime Minister, Lee Hsien Loong, are worth watching (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C49HV89bMn4, and https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZyZwtKJn-Ac)

Thus a few simple, but important, rules apply. These are similar to those in standard risk communication, but the importance of applying them is even greater when the health of the general public and of a country’s economy are at risk.

In terms of content:

  • Keep the message simple, brief and straightforward
  • Avoid speculation – stick to facts
  • Respect and address people’s concerns and requests for information.

In terms of style:

  • Be frank and honest
  • Make it clear that the company (or those running the country) recognizes the importance of communicating
  • Show empathy, concern and commitment – you’re all in this together.

The 25 key recommendations in crisis communication (www.psandman.com)

Peter Sandman has developed 25 key recommendations for communicating in a crisis. Some overlap and not all will be applicable at any one time – but the list is well worth reviewing and keeping close by when faced with a crisis. Very few people are at their best when facing a crisis and needing to communicate effectively to others – so a handy checklist is incredibly useful.

  1. Do not over-reassure.
  2. Put reassuring information in subordinate clauses.
  3. Err on the side of alarm.
  4. Acknowledge uncertainty.
  5. Share dilemmas.
  6. Acknowledge opinion diversity.
  7. Be willing to speculate.
  8. Do not over-diagnose or overplan for panic.
  9. Do not aim for zero fear.
  10. Don’t forget emotions other than fear.
  11. Do not ridicule the public’s emotions.
  12. Legitimize people’s fears.
  13. Tolerate early overreactions.
  14. Establish your own humanity.
  15. Tell people what to expect.
  16. Offer people things to do.
  17. Let people choose their own actions.
  18. Ask more of people.
  19. Acknowledge errors, deficiencies and misbehaviours.
  20. Apologize often for errors, deficiencies and misbehaviours.
  21. Be explicit about ‘anchoring frames.’
  22. Be explicit about changes in official opinion, prediction or po
  23. Do not lie and do not tell half-truths.
  24. Aim for total candor and transparency.
  25. Be careful with risk comparisons.

After all, “a problem shared is a problem halved”.

Thus, I suggest that the President uses this checklist, and if he needs additional explanation, Grant is nearby.

However, even though the coronavirus outbreak is primarily a human tragedy, affecting hundreds of thousands of people, but It is also having a growing impact on the global economy.

The supply chain and economic slowdown will disrupt and affect Turkey dramatically, especially in the sectors of tourism, oil and gas, consumer products, consumer electronics, etc.  –  which should also be an integral part of the message. My recommendation would be to use scenarios (with no probabilities) – I always think that government institutions should use scenarios rather than forecasts, especially in public forums.